Market Update | JUNE 07

DID YOU KNOW?

Top Headlines: Delivered by Leonard Steinberg

JUNE 07, 2023

01 Is air-conditioning a necessity or a luxury? In some parts of the world, the rising probability of heat waves that can turn deadly is fueling discussion of requiring all rental properties to deliver cooling systems. (L A Times)

02 The median expectation is that inflation will run at a 3.1% annualized pace over the next five years. (University of Michigan)

03 In Europe, the luxury industry took off over the past decade and had its best years ever during the pandemic. Record stimulus added trillions in new wealth, much of it in the hands of the very rich, who spent a good chunk of it on high-end goods. The luxury industry - fueled by LUXE-flation - has been ruled for centuries by Europe with about 66% of global luxury sales revenues flowing to Europe. 40% of Europe's TOP 10 companies are LVMH, L'Oreal, Hermes and Dior. Hermès now has margins over 40% up from 25% in 2010 and above that of even Microsoft. Luxury companies serve a clientele that is increasingly price-insensitive. The price of a Chanel handbag has doubled over the past 5 years to about $10,000. (FT)

04 A valuable new feature is coming to i-phones: Live transcription will be coming for phone voicemails, so users don’t have to listen to get the message. Since it’s in real time, if something is important, you can pick up the call to talk to them right then and there. (CNBC)

05 Water resources in Europe are growing increasingly scarce because of the deepening climate emergency, with record-breaking temperatures through spring and a historic winter heatwave taking a visible toll on the region’s rivers and ski slopes. Reservoirs in Mediterranean countries like Italy have fallen to water levels typically associated with summer heatwaves in recent weeks, threatening agricultural production, while protests have broken out over water shortages in both France and Spain. (CNBC)

06 Nearly $1.5 trillion in commercial mortgages are coming due over the next 3 years. Unlike most home loans, which get paid down each year, many commercial mortgages are interest-only loans. Borrowers make only interest payments during the life of the loan, with the entire principal due at the end. Interest-only loans as a share of new commercial mortgage-backed securities issuance increased to 88% in 2021, up from 51% in 2013. A solid argument as to why the likelihood of interest rates coming down within the next 12 months is highly probable in my opinion. (WSJ)